Trump Administration

Pieces on the Board: The Cuba Confrontation, May 25–27, 2026

14 min read

A three-day window in which the U.S. military posture for an attack on Cuba becomes public, Havana takes its case to the UN Security Council, and the energy blockade reaches into kitchens in Santiago. The pieces are in place; what remains undecided is whether Washington uses them.

Read more →

Cuba at a Crossroads: The May 21, 2026 Escalation

11 min read

On May 21, 2026, four distinct but converging stories sharpened the U.S.–Cuba confrontation: an unsealed indictment of former president Raúl Castro, condemnations from Moscow and Beijing, an 8–1 Supreme Court ruling expanding Helms-Burton liability against major cruise lines, and a defiant mobilization by the Cuban government. Together they suggest a coordinated pressure campaign with parallels to the Trump administration’s earlier action against Venezuela.

Read more →

Indictment as Stagecraft: Washington's Move on Raúl Castro

6 min read

A federal indictment of Cuba’s 94-year-old former president lands on the anniversary of the end of US military occupation. It is both a real symbolic blow to the Cuban regime and a piece of carefully staged political theater. Reading the difference matters for assessing what comes next.

Read more →